Report on CMHC 2013 Alberta Housing Outlook Conference

December 6, 2013 By Norm Cholak

On November 26, 2013, CMHC held their 2013 Alberta Housing Outlook Conference.

Here are some of the important highlights from that conference.

Alberta is expected to be among Canada’s economic growth leaders in 2013 and 2014.

Alberta’s growing economy is expected to generate employment growth of 2.8% in 2013 and 2.3% in 2014. This will keep the unemployment rate relatively low in Alberta compared to the national average at 4.6% in 2013 and 4.5% in 2014. Alberta’s expanding economy and labour market opportunities will continue to be attractive to migrants, thus net migration to the province will remain at an elevated level. While economic growth outside of Alberta is expected to improve, it is not expected to slow the annual flow of migrants to Alberta until 2014. Net migration reached 86,939 in 2012 and is projected at 95,600 in 2013 and 68,100 in 2014.

In the resale market, Alberta’s MLS sales are forecast to reach 65,000 in 2013 and then rise to 66,800 in 2014. Alberta’s elevated level of net migration will help support housing demand through 2014. In addition to new household formation, employment and wage growth will also support a higher level of resale transactions. After averaging $363,208 in 2012, the MLS price in Alberta will increase to $379,200 in 2013 and $387,400 in 2014. The Sales-to-new listings ratio for Alberta has been trending higher in 2013, indicative of stronger demand relative to supply. As a result some locations are beginning to exhibit sellers’ market conditions. However, ner listings are expected to increase in 2014 and this will help moderate the pace pf price growth next year.

Since 2010 Alberta has had a somewhat balanced market with this year and perhaps next year flirting with a sellers’ market.

There has been a strong transition in employment growth – mainly more full time jobs and less part time jobs.

We are still having a decent migration to our region.

The average price increase for Edmonton this year is reported at 3.2% and the predicted increase is 2.2% for 2014.